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The True Bitcoin Breakout Hasn’t Even Happened Yet, Volatility Shows

DATE POSTED:November 1, 2020

Bitcoin has undergone a massive rally over the past two weeks. From the lows set after the news broke regarding OKEx, the leading cryptocurrency has surged higher by almost 25%. As of this article’s writing, Bitcoin trades for $13,800.

Despite this rapid move to the upside, not all analysts are convinced that the true Bitcoin breakout has taken place. That’s to say, Bitcoin could soon see even more explosive movement.

Related Reading: Here’s Why Ethereum’s DeFi Market May Be Near A Bottom Bitcoin Hasn’t Even Seen Its True Breakout Yet

A crypto-asset analyst shared the chart below on October 31st, sharing the sentiment that Bitcoin’s volatility is still barely off the lows. The chart below depicts BTC’s one-day historical volatility index since the start of the year. As can be seen, volatility is still far below the highs that were printed during March’s over 60% correction.

This analysis suggests that once Bitcoin breaks the trendline depicted in green, it will begin a move of macro importance. While current trends suggest that will be a move to the upside, BTC could reverse lower from here if another liquidity crisis were to transpire.

Image

Chart of BTC's historical volatility index since the start of 2020 shared by crypto trader and chartist Big Chonis (@Bigchonis on Twitter). Source: BTCUSD from TradingView.com

Bitazu Capital’s Mohit Sorout thinks that this volatility results in a strong move to the upside. He recently shared the chart below, showing how low Bitcoin’s macro volatility is right now compared to historical levels.

$BTC saw these prices in Dec 2017 then once in Jun 2019. We're here again today but volatility hasn't even started picking up.

Yes this time is different. pic.twitter.com/Oejq9NFEKJ

— Mohit Sorout